Licenciatura em Finanças
Plano Curricular Finanças
Scenarios and Strategic Foresight (SSF)
UC Competência
Scenarios and Strategic Foresight(Gestão)UC Execução
Scenarios and Strategic Foresight (2020/2021 - Semestre 2)Scenarios and Strategic Foresight (2019/2020 - Semestre 2)
Scenarios and Strategic Foresight (2018/2019 - Semestre 1)
Contextos
Grupo: Finanças > 1º Ciclo > Unidades Curriculares Optativas
Período: 3 Ano, 2 Semestre
Grupo: Finanças > 1º Ciclo > Unidades Curriculares Optativas
Período: 3 Ano, 1 Semestre
Peso
4.0 (para cálculo da média)
Objectivos
This curricular unit aims to provide a solid background in Scenario Planning and Strategic Foresight, which is particularly relevant in the context of accelerating change, turbulence, uncertainty and unpredictability that characterizes current times. It favours tools that allow the mastery of operational aspects through simulations. In particular, this curricular unit provides students with the tools to:
- Understand Strategic Foresight theoretical and methodological bases and the various ways of trying to anticipate the future;
- Seize the concept of Scenario as an instrument for simulating possible futures;
- Understand the centrality of uncertainty as Scenarios' raw material;
- Understand how Foresight and Scenarios are key for corporate strategy;
- Operate key concepts of Strategic Foresight, Horizon Scanning and Scenarios;
- Apply the concepts and techniques that integrate the main methodologies of construction of Scenarios.
Programa
1. Foresight, Horizon Scanning and Scenarios: origins, principles and key concepts.
- The Foresight concept. Forecasting versus Foresight.
- Strategic Foresight: principles, objectives and schools of thought.
- Uncertainty management and organizational learning: the essential role of Foresight in Strategy.
2. Horizon scanning, trends, megatrends uncertainties, wild cards and weak signals.
- Key concepts in action (hands-on simulation).
3. Foresight, Horizon Scanning and Scenarios: methodological toolbox.
- Techniques and tools for creativity and innovation.
- Techniques and tools for the identification and analysis of key factors.
- Techniques and tools for the identification and analysis of key actors.
4. Developing Scenarios. Scenarios as the main Foresight tool.
- Scenarios: concept, process and methodological characteristics.
- The Intuitive Logics School of Scenario Building (?the Shell School?). Hands-on simulation.
- Other Scenario Planning schools.
- Michael Porter?s Industry Scenarios.
- The Probabilistic Modified Trends School.
- La Prospective (the French Foresight School) and Morphological Analysis. Hands-on simulation.
5. From scenarios to organizational outputs. From anticipation to strategy / from anticipation to action.
- Implicationsandoptions.
- Exploring Scenarios using different Strategy tools. Hands on simulation.
6. Designing and leading Foresight and Scenario Planning processes.
Metodologia de avaliação
Exame final: 50%
Trabalho de grupo: 40%
Participação nas aulas: 10%
Bibliografia
Principal
Scenarios - the Art of Strategic Conversation
Van der Heijden, Kees
1996
John Wiley and Sons, London.
Decision Analysis for Management Judgment (4th ed.)
Goodwin, P., Wright, G.
2009
John Wiley & Sons, Chichester. [Chapter 15 "Scenario planning: an alternative way of dealing with uncertainty"]
How to be Rigorous with Scenario Planning.
Godet, Michel
2000
Foresight ,Vol. 2, no.1
Secundária
A review of scenario planning
Amer, M., Daim, T.U., Jetter, A.
2013
Futures, 46, 4623-4640
Scenario Thinking and Strategic Modelling
Coyle, R. G.
2003
in The Oxford Handbook of Strategy, edited by David Faulkner and Andrew Campbell, pp. 308-349. Oxford University Press, Oxford.
Fortes, Patrícia; Alvarenga, A.; Seixas, J.; Rodrigues, S.
2015
Volume 91, February, Pages 161-178
Manuel de Prospective Stratégique 1 - Une indiscipline intellectuelle
Godet, Michel
1997
Paris: Dunod
The Competitive Advantage: Creating and Sustaining Superior Performance
Porter, Michael E.
1998
NY: Free Press (republished with a new introduction) [particularly the chapter about Scenarios]
What If? The Art of Scenario Thinking for Nonprofits
Scearce, D.,& Fulton, K.
2004
Global Business Network.
The Art of the Long View
Schwartz, Peter
1991
Doubleday Currency, New York.
Scenarios and possible futures for hospitality and tourism
Varum, C.; Melo, C.; Alvarenga, A. and Carvalho, P.
2011
Foresight, Vol. 13, Iss: 1, pp. 19-35.
Scenarios: Shooting the Rapids.
Wack P.
1985
Harvard Business Review, 63(6), 139-150.
Scenarios: Uncharted waters ahead.
Wack P.
1985
Harvard Business Review, 63(5), 73-89.
From Scenario Thinking to Strategic Action
Wilson, I.
2000
Technological Forecasting and Social, Change, Volume 65, Number 1: 23-29.