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Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão (ISEG)


ISEG 2S | A Projection Method for Public Health and Long - Term Care Expenditures

Em 20-09-2013 às 11:30 / Quelhas 6 | Floor 3 | Delta Room


Joaquim Oliveira


A Projection Method for Public Health and Long - Term Care Expenditures

This paper proposes a new set of public health and long-term care expenditure projections until 2060,
seven years after a first set of projections was published by the OECD. It disentangles health from longterm
care expenditure, as well as the demographic from the non-demographic drivers, and refines the
previous methodology, in particular by extending the country coverage. Regarding health care, nondemographic
drivers are identified, with an attempt to better understand the residual expenditure growth by
determining which share can be explained by the evolution of health prices and technology effects.
Concerning LTC, an estimation of the determinants of the number of dependants (people needing help in
their daily life activities) is provided. A cost-containment and a cost-pressure scenario are provided,
together with sensitivity analysis. On average across OECD countries, total health and long-term care
expenditure is projected to increase by 3.3 and 7.7 percentage points of GDP between 2010 and 2060 in the
cost-containment and the cost-pressure scenarios respectively. For the BRIICS over the same period, it is
projected to increase by 2.8 and 7.3 percentage points of GDP in the cost-containment and the costpressure
scenarios respectively.

Complete calendar
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This seminars series is organized by Margarida Abreu (ECO), Raquel M. Gaspar (FIN/MG) and Isabel Proença (QM).

All speakers are available to meet faculty at ISEG before the talk. Slots are limited. To book your time with the speaker, contact one of the coordination team members.

To join the ISEG 2S Seminar Mailing List and receive regular information contact Filomena Ferreira .

If you come to the seminars at ISEG by car, please contact Filomena Ferreira to assure your entrance into the park.