Speaker
Miguel Morin
Columbia University

Presentation
Information Technologies and Jobless Recoveries

Abstract
Jobless recoveries followed each of the last three recessions in the United States. This paper presents a model where firms use recessions as an opportunity to substitute workers with capital. This substitution of factors now involves Information Technologies because computers have recently become cheap and competitive compared to workers. As a consequence, specific jobs will disappear in the longterm and they may disappear earlier if there is a recession. In recent recoveries, firms avoid hiring workers because they invest in computers instead. In effect, the recession accelerates the disappearance of specific jobs and their replacement with computers. Quantitatively, the model replicates the dynamics of employment in postwar recoveries. Empirically, this paper shows that the replacement of workers with computers may be responsible for the destruction of 5 million jobs over the 2007-2010 recession and recovery.

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This seminars series is organized by Margarida Abreu (ECO), Raquel M. Gaspar (FIN/MG) and Isabel Proença (QM).

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