THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF THE MAXI TRIAL ON SICILY

This thesis studies the economic impact of the Maxi Trial (1986–1992), the largest anti mafia judicial process in Italian history and a key moment in the national fight against organized crime. The trial was not only a legal milestone but also a potential turning point for the Sicilian economy, which for decades had been deeply influenced by the pervasive presence of the mafia. The central question is whether such a major judicial intervention produced measurable changes in regional economic performance, and if so, how lasting or significant those changes were. To address this issue, the Synthetic Control Method (SCM) is applied. Sicily is treated as the affected unit and compared to a counterfactual constructed from a weighted mix of Italian regions not directly influenced by the trial. This approach makes it possible to estimate what Sicily’s trajectory might have looked like in the absence of the event. The analysis spans the years 1980–2009 and focuses on two main indicators of development: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF). The results present a mixed picture. GDP in Sicily remains slightly higher than in the synthetic control throughout the post-1986 period, but the gap narrows gradually, suggesting that any early advantage weakened over time. By contrast, investment patterns, captured by GFCF, show a modest yet more persistent upward trend, pointing to a certain improvement in business expectations and confidence in the years following the trial. Overall, the evidence indicates that the Maxi Trial did not radically transform the Sicilian economy, but it left small, visible traces. These findings highlight how judicial and institutional actions against organized crime can shape economic outcomes, even if the effects remain limited.