Equity Research: DFDS AS

This Master Final Work Project presents an equity valuation of DFDS Group as of year-end 2025. The analysis follows the principles of the CFA Institute Equity Research standards, comprising a comprehensive company overview, a review of business segments, and an industry analysis focused on European freight, Ro-Ro shipping, and logistics trends. The valuation is based on historical financial data from 2019 to 2024 and a forecast period covering 2025 to 2030. The primary valuation method applied was a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model, supported by relative valuation through Price-to-Sales (P/S) and Price-to-Book (P/B) multiples, and further cross-checked using a Dividend Discount Model (DDM). Sensitivity analyses were conducted to key variables terminal growth rate and WACC to assess the impact on the Price Target and Enterprise Value. Based on the DCF model, the estimated intrinsic value of DFDS shares is DKK 127.03 per share, compared to a market price of DKK 113.80 as of June 27, 2025. This represents an upside potential of approximately 11.7%, supporting a Hold recommendation. The total payout model (DDM) and relative valuation (P/S and P/B multiples) provided corroborating price targets of DKK 111.46, DKK 196.62, and DKK 146.88 respectively. DFDS is expected to maintain a consistent dividend payout policy, targeting a payout ratio of 25% when its net debt to EBITDA ratio ranges between 2x and 3x. While DFDS benefits from a strong market position in Northern European transport and logistics, with diversified operations across shipping and land-based services, the company remains exposed to macroeconomic risks, fuel price volatility, and competitive pressures. The investment is classified as Medium Risk, reflecting the balance between its solid financial structure and sensitivity to external market conditions.