Aluno: Lutz Jannis Obert
Resumo
This Investment Policy Statement (IPS) defines the long-term investment strategy for Mr. and
Mrs. Kern, a German couple in their early sixties transitioning from inherited rental real estate
to a diversified financial portfolio. Their objective is to achieve financial independence and
stability through systematic, evidence-based portfolio management aligned with their
conservative risk tolerance and Environmental Social Governance (ESG) preferences.
The IPS targets a gross annual withdrawal of €30,000 over a 10-year horizon, proposing a
portfolio with calculated returns of 11.66% while maintaining annualized volatility of 10.33%
and downside deviation of 6.05%. Portfolio constraints include a maximum drawdown of 15%,
extendable to 50% for ESG-compliant investments. The portfolio avoids leverage, single
stocks, and short-selling, reflecting the clients’ preference for capital preservation and
simplicity.
Grounded in modern portfolio theory, behavioral finance, and impact investing principles, the
investment philosophy emphasizes passive, low-cost Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) and
exposure to sustainable and alternative assets. Strategic asset allocation is optimized using the
Sortino Ratio, prioritizing downside risk control and long-term growth potential. The final
portfolio consists of 11 diversified assets, including equity, fixed income, commodities, ESG
and alternative investments.
Comprehensive risk analysis, including Value at Risk (VaR), Monte Carlo simulations, stress
testing, and a qualitative Probability/Impact Risk Matrix, ensures portfolio resilience against
extreme market conditions and sequence-of-return risk. This IPS offers a robust, ethically
aligned investment roadmap tailored to the Kern family's values, objectives, and financial
circumstances.
Trabalho final de Mestrado