BREXIT’S IMPACT ON EUROPEAN UNION IMMIGRATION TO THE UK VERSUS NON-EUROPEAN UNION IMMIGRATION

The Brexit referendum, held in June 2016, has significantly impacted the political, economic, and social dynamics of the United Kingdom and the European Union, with immigration concerns at the heart of the campaign. The aim of this dissertation is to access the specific impact of this event on immigration trends, focusing on EU nationals and their contributions to the UK labour market. This study adopts a quantitative approach, using data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). It analyses two datasets: long-term migration to the UK, spanning from 2012 to 2023, and payrolled employment in the UK, ranging from 2014 to 2023. A regression model, employing Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), is utilized to examine the influence of Brexit on EU migration trends, and sector-specific impacts, particularly Hospitality, Finance, Health and Social Work, Education, and Professional, Scientific and Technical activities. The findings of this research show that Brexit has considerably reduced EU immigration to the UK while it simultaneously increased non-EU immigration. This implies a major shift in the immigration trends and composition of the British workforce, with overall immigration levels remaining high. The results indicate that the new patterns on immigration are not addressing the UK’s labour needs, revealing that the contributions of EU migrants were underestimated. Furthermore, these findings contradict the promises made during the Leave campaign to reduce immigration. This thesis addresses the Sustainable Development Goals number 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth), 10 (Reduced Inequalities) and 16 (Peace, Justice, and Strong Institutions).