Scenarios and Strategic Foresight (2 º Sem 2020/2021)

ECO , ECN , FIN , GES , MNG , MAEG

Linhas Programáticas

1. Foresight, Horizon Scanning and Scenarios: origins, principles and key concepts.
- The Foresight concept. Forecasting versus Foresight.
- Strategic Foresight: principles, objectives and schools of thought.
- Uncertainty management and organizational learning: the essential role of Foresight in Strategy.

2. Horizon scanning, trends, megatrends uncertainties, wild cards and weak signals.
- Key concepts in action (hands-on simulation).

3. Foresight, Horizon Scanning and Scenarios: methodological toolbox.
- Techniques and tools for creativity and innovation.
- Techniques and tools for the identification and analysis of key factors.
- Techniques and tools for the identification and analysis of key actors.

4. Developing Scenarios. Scenarios as the main Foresight tool.
- Scenarios: concept, process and methodological characteristics.
- The Intuitive Logics School of Scenario Building (?the Shell School?). Hands-on simulation.
- Other Scenario Planning schools.
- Michael Porter?s Industry Scenarios.
- The Probabilistic Modified Trends School.
- La Prospective (the French Foresight School) and Morphological Analysis. Hands-on simulation.

5. From scenarios to organizational outputs. From anticipation to strategy / from anticipation to action.
- Implicationsandoptions.
- Exploring Scenarios using different Strategy tools. Hands on simulation.

6. Designing and leading Foresight and Scenario Planning processes.