Search button

ISEG 2S | A Projection Method for Public Health and Long – Term Care Expenditures

20 Set das 11:30 às 11:31
Quelhas 6 | Floor 3 | Delta Room

 

Speaker




Joaquim Oliveira



OCDE






Presentation




A Projection Method for Public Health and Long
– Term Care Expenditures


Abstract

This paper proposes a new set of public health and long-term care expenditure projections until 2060,

seven years after a first set of projections was published by the OECD. It disentangles health from longterm

care expenditure, as well as the demographic from the non-demographic drivers, and refines the

previous methodology, in particular by extending the country coverage. Regarding health care, nondemographic

drivers are identified, with an attempt to better understand the residual expenditure growth by

determining which share can be explained by the evolution of health prices and technology effects.

Concerning LTC, an estimation of the determinants of the number of dependants (people needing help in

their daily life activities) is provided. A cost-containment and a cost-pressure scenario are provided,

together with sensitivity analysis. On average across OECD countries, total health and long-term care

expenditure is projected to increase by 3.3 and 7.7 percentage points of GDP between 2010 and 2060 in the

cost-containment and the cost-pressure scenarios respectively. For the BRIICS over the same period, it is

projected to increase by 2.8 and 7.3 percentage points of GDP in the cost-containment and the costpressure

scenarios respectively.


Complete calendar

To see the full calendar please
click here.

ORGANIZING TEAM

This seminars series is organized by

Margarida Abreu

(ECO),

Raquel M. Gaspar

(FIN/MG) and

Isabel Proença

(QM).


MEETING THE SPEAKER



All speakers are available to meet faculty at ISEG before the talk. Slots are limited. To book your time with the speaker, contact one of the coordination team members.


MAILING LIST


To join the ISEG 2S Seminar Mailing List and receive regular information contact

Filomena Ferreira

.


PARKING


If you come to the seminars at ISEG by car, please contact

Filomena Ferreira

to assure your entrance into the park.