InícioISEG 2S | A Projection Method for Public Health and Long – Term Care Expenditures20 Set das 11:30 às 11:31Quelhas 6 | Floor 3 | Delta Room SpeakerJoaquim OliveiraOCDEPresentationA Projection Method for Public Health and Long– Term Care ExpendituresAbstract This paper proposes a new set of public health and long-term care expenditure projections until 2060,seven years after a first set of projections was published by the OECD. It disentangles health from longtermcare expenditure, as well as the demographic from the non-demographic drivers, and refines theprevious methodology, in particular by extending the country coverage. Regarding health care, nondemographicdrivers are identified, with an attempt to better understand the residual expenditure growth bydetermining which share can be explained by the evolution of health prices and technology effects.Concerning LTC, an estimation of the determinants of the number of dependants (people needing help intheir daily life activities) is provided. A cost-containment and a cost-pressure scenario are provided,together with sensitivity analysis. On average across OECD countries, total health and long-term careexpenditure is projected to increase by 3.3 and 7.7 percentage points of GDP between 2010 and 2060 in thecost-containment and the cost-pressure scenarios respectively. For the BRIICS over the same period, it isprojected to increase by 2.8 and 7.3 percentage points of GDP in the cost-containment and the costpressurescenarios respectively.Complete calendarTo see the full calendar pleaseclick here.ORGANIZING TEAM This seminars series is organized byMargarida Abreu(ECO),Raquel M. Gaspar(FIN/MG) andIsabel Proença(QM).MEETING THE SPEAKERAll speakers are available to meet faculty at ISEG before the talk. Slots are limited. To book your time with the speaker, contact one of the coordination team members.MAILING LISTTo join the ISEG 2S Seminar Mailing List and receive regular information contactFilomena Ferreira.PARKINGIf you come to the seminars at ISEG by car, please contactFilomena Ferreirato assure your entrance into the park.