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João Tovar Jalles

Senior Associate Professor
Departamento
Economics
Área Científica
Macroeconomics
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Biografia

João Tovar Jalles, a Portuguese national, is a Senior Associate Professor of Economics at the University of Lisbon. Previously, he was a Senior Economist at the Portuguese Public Finance Council. Before that he spent 5 years at the IMF: 1 year in the Research Department and 4 years in the Fiscal Affairs Department, where he participated in negotiation and review missions to Senegal and Georgia. Before joining the Fund, João was the Economist of the Brazil-Portugal Desk at the OECD’s Economics Department and before that a Fiscal Economist at the ECB’s Fiscal Policies Division (where he was part of the Troika team for Portugal). Academically, he was an Invited Lecturer at Sciences Po (France), Assistant Professor at the University of Aberdeen (UK) and he also taught at the University of Cambridge (UK) and Universidade Nova de Lisboa (Portugal).
João´s main research interest is applied macroeconomics, more specifically fiscal policy/public finance, structural reforms, macro-financial linkages, assessment of forecasts and energy economics.
João is among the top 1% economic authors in the World (Rank: [250 out of 67233]) (and, consequently, top 1% in Europe/Portugal) based on IDEAS database´s last 10-year publications (the largest bibliographic database dedicated to Economics). He has written extensively having published more than 150 academic papers in refereed journals such as: Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Oxford Economic Papers, International Journal of Forecasting, Journal of International Money and Finance, Economics Letters, Regional Studies, Energy Economics. João holds a B.Sc. in Economics from Universidade Nova de Lisboa (Portugal), a M.Sc. in Economics from the University of Warwick (UK), a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Cambridge (UK) and a Habilitation Degree ("Agregação") from Universidade de Lisboa.

Educação

2023 Aggregation, Economy, Economics
Universidade de Lisboa, ISEG (Portugal)
2011 Philosophiae Doctor , Economie, Economia
University of Cambridge (United Kingdom)
2008 Master of Science, Economie, Economia
Universidade de Warwick (UK) (United Kingdom)
2006 Bachelor of Science, Economie, Economia
Fac. Econ. Univ. Nova Lisboa (Portugal)

Publicações e Citações

Journal article
Ano Título / Publicação Link
2023 Minimum Wage and Collective Bargaining Shocks: A Narrative Database for Advanced Economies
IZA Journal of Labor Policy
Ver
2023 For Whom the Bell Tolls: Climate Change and Income Inequality
Energy Policy
Ver
2023 Drivers of the Tax Effort: Evidence from a Large Panel
Comparative Economic Studies
Ver
2023 Tax evasion from cross-border fraud: does digitalization make a difference?
Applied Economics Letters
Ver
2022 Twin Deficits Revisited: a role for fiscal institutions?
Journal of International Money and Finance
Ver
2022 Do Financial Markets Reward Government Spending Efficiency?
Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money
Ver
2022 To consolidate or not to consolidate? A multi-step analysis to assess needed fiscal sustainability
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
Ver
2022 The (non-)Keynesian effects of fiscal austerity: New evidence from a large sample
Economic Systems
Ver
2022 Fiscal Reaction Functions in the EU: A Tale of “r-g” and Whether it Matters
Revue Française d'Economie
Ver
2022 This Changes Everything: Climate Shocks and Sovereign Bonds
Energy Economics
Ver
2022 Heterogeneous Gains from Counter-cyclical Fiscal Policy: New Evidence from International Industry-level data
Oxford Economic Papers
Ver
2022 Labor and Product Market Reforms and External Imbalances: Evidence from Advanced Economies
Journal of International Money and Finance
Ver
2022 Private and Public Consumption: Substitutes or Complements?
Oxford Economic Papers
Ver
2022 Do Tax Reforms affect Income Distribution? Evidence from Developing Countries
Economic Modelling
Ver
2022 Can Covid-19 Induce Governments to Implement Tax Reforms in Developing Countries?
Applied Economics
Ver
2022 Trend and Cycles in CO2 Emissions and Growth: Cross-country Evidence on Decoupling
Journal of Macroeconomics
Ver
2022 Do Credit Rating Agencies reward Fiscal Prudence?
International Finance
Ver
2022 Tax Buoyancy in Sub-Saharan Africa and its determinants
International Tax and Public Finance
Ver
2022 Emissions and Output: Decoupling Evidence from Brazilian States
Journal of Developing Areas
Ver
2022 An Apocalypse Foretold: Climate Shocks and Sovereign Defaults
Open Economies Review
Ver
2021 Heterogeneous Gains from Counter-cyclical Fiscal Policy: New Evidence from International Industry-level data
Oxford Economic Papers
Ver
2021 Structural tax reforms and public spending efficiency
Open Economies Review
Ver
2021 Taxation and public spending efficiency: An international comparison,
Comparative Economic Studies
Ver
2021 Promised Fiscal Expansions and Politics: A European Union Assessment
Comparative Economic Studies
Ver
2021 Recessions and Total Factor Productivity: Evidence from Sectoral data
Economic Modelling
Ver
2021 Fiscal Discipline and Exchange Rates: Does Politics Matter?
Scottish Journal of Political Economy
Ver
2021 Dynamics of Government Spending Cyclicality
Economic Modelling
Ver
2021 Tax Capacity and Growth in the Asia-Pacific Region
Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy
Ver
2021 Globalization, Freedoms and Economic convergence: an empirical exploration of a trivariate relationship using a large panel
International Economics and Economic Policy
Ver
2020 Economic Volatility and Sovereign Yields' Determinants: a Time-Varying Approach
Empirical Economics
Ver
2020 Emissions and Economic Development in Commodity Exporting Countries
Energy Economics
Ver
2020 Job Protection Deregulation in Good and Bad Times
Oxford Economic Papers
Ver
2020 The effects of Macroeconomic, fiscal and monetary policy announcements on sovereign bond spreads
International Review of Law and Economics
Ver
2020 On the Performance of US Fiscal Forecasts: Government vs. Private Information
Journal of Economic Studies
Ver
2020 The Impact of Financial Crises on the Environment in Developing Countries
Annals of Finance
Ver
2020 The volatility impact of social expenditure’s cyclicality in advanced economies
Economic Analysis and Policy
Ver
2020 Social expenditure cyclicality: New time-varying evidence in developing economies
Economic Systems
Ver
2020 Stock Flow Adjustments in Sovereign Debt Dynamics: The role of Fiscal Frameworks
International Review of Economics and Finance
Ver
2020 Long-run relationship between exports and imports: current account sustainability tests for the EU
Portuguese Economic Journal
2020 Emissions and Economic Growth in Commodity Exporting Countries
Energy Economics
Ver
2020 A New Look into Fiscal Countercyclicality: Expectations, Shocks, and the Business Cycle
FinanzArchiv
Ver
2019 Quantitative Easing and Sovereign Yield Spreads: Euro-Area Time-Varying Evidence
Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions & Money
Ver
2019 The Global Crisis and Intergovernmental Relations: Centralisation vs. decentralisation Ten Years On
Regional Studies
Ver
2019 A Note on Inflation Dynamics, Price Volatility and Fiscal Activism
Macroeconomic Dynamics
Ver
2019 Explaining Africa’s Public Consumption Procyclicality: Revisiting Old Evidence
International Finance
Ver
2019 Sovereign indebtedness and financial and fiscal conditions
Applied Economics Letters
Ver
2019 On the Determinants of the Okun’s Law: New Evidence from Time-Varying Estimates
Comparative Economic Studies
Ver
2019 The Fiscal Consequences of Deflation: Evidence from the Golden Age of Globalization
Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance
Ver
2019 Sovereign Ratings and Finance Ministers' Characteristics
ECONOMICS BULLETIN
Ver
2019 Long-run relationship between exports and imports: current account sustainability tests for the EU
Portuguese Economic Journal
Ver
2019 Fiscal Rules and Government Financing Costs
Fiscal Studies
Ver
2019 Fiscal Reaction Functions Across the World: A Battle of Statistical (In-)Significance
FinanzArchiv
Ver
2018 European Commission’s Fiscal Forecasts in CEE countries: a Thorough Assessment
Journal of Economic Policy Reform
Ver
Paper presented at academic or professional meetings
Ano Título / Publicação Link
2021 Do financial markets reward public spending efficiency?
2021 Do financial markets reward public spending efficiency?
2020 Taxation and public spending efficiency: An international comparison
2020 Structural tax reforms and public spending efficiency

Ensino

Semester Curso Graduação Coordenação
Economia Monetária e Financeira Licenciatura Bolonha em Economia - Economia, Licenciatura Bolonha em Gestão - Gestão, Licenciatura Bolonha em Matemática Aplicada à Economia e à Gestão - Matemática Aplicada à Economia e à Gestão No
Macroeconomia I Licenciatura Bolonha em Economia - Economia, Licenciatura Bolonha em Gestão - Gestão, Licenciatura Bolonha em Matemática Aplicada à Economia e à Gestão - Matemática Aplicada à Economia e à Gestão No
Análise da Informação Económica e Empresarial Licenciatura Bolonha em Finanças - Finanças, Licenciatura Bolonha em Gestão - Gestão, Licenciatura Bolonha em Estudos Gerais - Estudos Gerais No
Economia Monetária e Financeira Licenciatura Bolonha em Finanças - Finanças, Licenciatura Bolonha em Economia - Economia, Licenciatura Bolonha em Gestão - Gestão, Licenciatura Bolonha em Matemática Aplicada à Economia e à Gestão - Matemática Aplicada à Economia e à Gestão No
Macroeconomia I Licenciatura Bolonha em Finanças - Finanças, Licenciatura Bolonha em Economia - Economia, Licenciatura Bolonha em Gestão - Gestão, Licenciatura Bolonha em Matemática Aplicada à Economia e à Gestão - Matemática Aplicada à Economia e à Gestão No
Análise da Informação Económica e Empresarial Licenciatura Bolonha em Finanças - Finanças, Licenciatura Bolonha em Gestão - Gestão, Licenciatura Bolonha em Estudos Gerais - Estudos Gerais No
Macroeconomia I Licenciatura Bolonha em Finanças - Finanças, Licenciatura Bolonha em Economia - Economia, Licenciatura Bolonha em Gestão - Gestão, Licenciatura Bolonha em Matemática Aplicada à Economia e à Gestão - Matemática Aplicada à Economia e à Gestão No
Economia Monetária e Financeira Licenciatura Bolonha em Finanças - Finanças, Licenciatura Bolonha em Economia - Economia, Licenciatura Bolonha em Gestão - Gestão, Licenciatura Bolonha em Matemática Aplicada à Economia e à Gestão - Matemática Aplicada à Economia e à Gestão No
Análise da Informação Económica e Empresarial Licenciatura Bolonha em Finanças - Finanças, Licenciatura Bolonha em Economia - Economia, Licenciatura Bolonha em Gestão - Gestão, Licenciatura Bolonha em Estudos Gerais - Estudos Gerais No
Economia Monetária e Financeira Licenciatura Bolonha em Finanças - Finanças, Licenciatura Bolonha em Economia - Economia, Licenciatura Bolonha em Gestão - Gestão, Licenciatura Bolonha em Matemática Aplicada à Economia e à Gestão - Matemática Aplicada à Economia e à Gestão No
Análise da Informação Económica e Empresarial Licenciatura Bolonha em Finanças - Finanças, Licenciatura Bolonha em Economia - Economia, Licenciatura Bolonha em Gestão - Gestão, Licenciatura Bolonha em Estudos Gerais - Estudos Gerais No
Macroeconomia I Licenciatura Bolonha em Finanças - Finanças, Licenciatura Bolonha em Economia - Economia, Licenciatura Bolonha em Gestão - Gestão, Licenciatura Bolonha em Matemática Aplicada à Economia e à Gestão - Matemática Aplicada à Economia e à Gestão, Licenciatura Bolonha em Management - Management No
Economia Monetária e Financeira Licenciatura Bolonha em Economia - Economia, Licenciatura Bolonha em Gestão - Gestão, Licenciatura Bolonha em Matemática Aplicada à Economia e à Gestão - Matemática Aplicada à Economia e à Gestão No
Macroeconomia I Licenciatura Bolonha em Economia - Economia, Licenciatura Bolonha em Gestão - Gestão, Licenciatura Bolonha em Matemática Aplicada à Economia e à Gestão - Matemática Aplicada à Economia e à Gestão, Licenciatura Bolonha em Management - Management No
Macroeconomics I Licenciatura Bolonha em Economics - Economics No
Macroeconomia I Licenciatura Bolonha em Finanças - Finanças No

Ano Student Name / Título / Institution Supervision Type Link
2022/2023 FADY ATEF HALIM HANNA
Globalization, Crises and Economic Growth
Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão
Master Ver
2021/2022 MATTHIAS HEZEL
Structural Reforms and Climate Change
Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão
Master Ver
2021/2022 MADALENA COSTA SANTOS IVO DE CARVALHO
The dilemma of ghost fishing: a leniency program application
Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão
Master Ver
2020/2021 MATTHIAS HEZEL
Structural Reforms and Climate Change
Master
2020/2021 FRANCISCA SAMPAIO XAVIER DE OLIVEIRA
The Impact of Pandemics on Energy Consumption and Carbon Emissions
Master Ver
2020/2021 ROMY CAROLINE HOREMAN
How will Covid19 affect Tourism: Evidence from Past Pandemics
Master Ver

Experiência Profissional

Nome / Descrição Data Organização
Senior Economist
2019 - 2020 PORTUGUESE PUBLIC FINANCE COUNCIL
Invited Lecturer of Economics
2012 - 2014 Sciences Po
Assistant Professor of Economics
2011 - 2012 University of Aberdeen
Teaching Assistant and Teaching Fellow
2009 - 2010 Cambridge University
Teaching Assistant
2006 - 2007 Fac. Econ. Univ. Nova Lisboa