On 8 June, a session of the ISEG Research Seminars will take place from 13.00 to 14.00. The guest speaker will be Art Durnev from Robins School of Richmond. The seminar will take place in the Novo Banco lecture theatre (Quelhas Building, 4th floor).
The ISEG Research Seminars are held every week on Wednesdays, with the participation of professors from ISEG, as well as from other Portuguese and international educational institutions.
Title
When AI Meets Nuclear Power: Energy Choice, AI Adoption and Financial Fragility
Abstract
I develop a macro-finance model of Artificial Intelligence (AI) adoption and energy choice by companies. While nuclear energy provides more stable power sources, the resulting widespread AI deployment can endogenously reintroduce instability by magnifying firms’ exposure to shocks. This is because AI adoption raises productivity but replaces labor, increasing capital intensity and reducing labor stabilizing role. The model produces a nonlinear relationship between nuclear reliance, firm volatility, valuation, investment, and cross-sectional differences driven by firms’ AI sensitivity. Empirical work in progress combines firm-level AI measures, state nuclear variation, and international patent data. I find preliminary support for the model's central mechanisms. The results highlight the need for policy frameworks that simultaneously encourage AI productivity gains, while managing heightened systemic risk and incentivizing low-volatility energy infrastructures.
The 6th International Conference in Human Resource Management will take place at ISEG on March 4 and 5, 2027.
The 11th edition of the international conference Optimization 2026, will be held at the ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics & Management, from 20-22 July 2026.
This forum seeks to bring together researchers and professionals from multiple areas whose common interest is optimisation, offering a space for debate, exchange of ideas and international networking.
ISEG Research researchers Maria Cândida Mourão, Cristina Requejo, Filipe Rodrigues, João Janela, Leonor Santiago Pinto and Raquel Bernardino are part of the event's organising committee.
Further information here.
On 29 May, a session of the ISEG Research Seminars will take place from 13.00 to 14.00. The guest speaker will be Michalis Drouvelis from University of Naples Federico II.
The ISEG Research Seminars are held every week on Wednesdays, with the participation of professors from ISEG, as well as from other Portuguese and international educational institutions.
Title
The Effects of Induced Emotions on Leading-by-Example (joint work with Zeyu Qiu)
Abstract
This paper investigates the effects of induced emotions on leading-by example. Using an online sample of more than 1,000 participants, we observe behavior in a one-shot sequential voluntary contribution mechanism game where leaders and followers are induced to be either happy or angry. Our findings show that angry leaders contribute less than happy leaders. The same effect is observed when considering followers’ behavior. A follow-up study uses the strategy method where the leader's actual contribution is not revealed to followers and shows that angry followers behave no differently from happy followers. This suggests that the effect of induced emotions on followers’ behavior operates primarily through the leader's behavior, highlighting the importance of leader emotions in shaping team outcomes. More broadly, our findings highlight the role of emotions as a causal force, suggesting that negative changes in well-being can bring about adverse effects on team cooperation.
On 27 May, a session of the ISEG Research Seminars will take place from 13.00 to 14.00. The guest speaker will be Chiara Lacava from University of Naples Federico II .
The ISEG Research Seminars are held every week on Wednesdays, with the participation of professors from ISEG, as well as from other Portuguese and international educational institutions.
Title
Local Governors as Tax Enforcers (with Giulia Olivero)
Abstract
This paper evaluates the impact of the Certified Warnings Program, a tax enforcement initiative in Italy that enabled municipalities to collaborate with the national tax authority to detect tax evasion. Using data covering the universe of sole proprietors and a difference-in-differences approach, we find that taxpayers in municipalities that adopted the program reported 3% higher taxable income after its introduction. We also document an increase in the probability of being audited and a corresponding reduction in tax evasion. These results hold when we conduct a similar analysis at the aggregate municipality level. Finally, we examine political outcomes for mayors who implemented the program during their first term and find that they were 8.7 percentage points more likely to be reelected, suggesting substantial political returns to local tax enforcement. Overall, our findings highlight the effectiveness of localized tax enforcement in improving tax compliance and its potential role as a political strategy.
On 20 May, a session of the ISEG Research Seminars will take place from 13.00 to 14.00. The guest speaker will be Tony Berrada of the University of Genoa. .
The ISEG Research Seminars are held every week on Wednesdays, with the participation of professors from ISEG, as well as from other Portuguese and international educational institutions.
Title
The Economics of Sustainability-Linked Bonds
Abstract
Relying on theory and empirical analysis, we study the real effects and pricing of Sustainability-Linked Bonds (SLBs). After issuance, SLB issuers decarbonize approximately seven percentage points faster per year than non-issuers. Our theory helps to understand the incentive structure and pricing of SLBs. Using a novel mispricing measure, we test several empirical predictions of our model. Overpriced SLBs at issuance experience negative secondary market returns. Stock markets react more positively to large, overpriced SLB issues, suggesting a wealth transfer from bondholders to shareholders. Finally, SLB mispricing is positively associated with firms’ ESG ratings. Our analysis shows that SLBs play a significant role in influencing firms’ decarbonization efforts and that these instruments carry meaningful implications for financial markets.
On 14 May, A session of the ISEG Research Seminars will take place between 1pm and 2pm. The guest speaker will be Daniel Raff, from the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania.
The ISEG Research Seminars are held every week on Wednesdays, with the participation of professors from ISEG, as well as from other Portuguese and international educational institutions.
Title
Historical Thinking as Analysis, Business History, and Management Education
Abstract
Business history often seems to get little respect among quantitative social science-oriented management academics. Its narratives are said to be convenient just-so stories. Its subjects are no more than “anecdata” i.e. anecdotes masquerading as statistically validated central tendencies of validly random samples. History written by professionals for professionals in the late twentieth and early twenty-first century is not like the annals recorded by medieval monks: it is not merely descriptive but also fundamentally analytical in nature. Longitudinal accounts of the life courses of individual firms and industries represent a fertile field for analytical treatment. Management academics (and their students!) take a natural interest in cases of extreme outcomes-be they spectacular successes or dramatic failures-rather than those of average performers. I will argue that teaching business history as applied strategy, focusing on what might broadly be called mechanism in examples salient for one reason or another, offers valuable opportunities in teaching as well as in research, opportunities which are complementary to the sort offered by work presented e.g. at the annual meetings of the Strategic Management Society or published in the Strategic Management Journal. The talk will develop a helpful overall perspective and give precision to some useful concepts.
On 13 May, A session of the ISEG Research Seminars will take place from 13:00-14:00. The guest speaker will be Ayala Arad, from Tel Aviv University. .
The ISEG Research Seminars are held every week on Wednesdays, with the participation of professors from ISEG, as well as from other Portuguese and international educational institutions.
Title
An Experimental Study of Decision Rules in General vs. Concrete Insurance Problems
Abstract
Experimental work typically studies how individuals respond to particular, concrete decision problems. Yet many real-world choices are made at a more general level: decision makers often step back to determine how they would act across related situations with varying parameters. Such general strategies also appear in delegation and automation, where people provide guidelines for agents or algorithms to apply broadly. We introduce an incentive-compatible method to elicit free-text decision rules for general decision problems. Participants describe a rule to an automated system that applies it across concrete cases. A between-subject design compares choices under a General treatment to manual Case-by-case choices, while also collecting the written rules intended to replicate those choices. In an online experiment, participants made 20 incentivised binary insurance choices with varying loss probabilities and premiums. Insurance demand was lower under the abstract, rule-guided mode. When participants later reviewed the concrete outcomes of their rules, only half adjusted some choices, indicating overall endorsement of rule-based decision making. Revisions slightly increased insurance uptake, yet Case-by-case rates remained higher. These findings show that decision mode, abstract versus concrete, shapes behavior in ways consistent with construal-level theory (the impact of psychological distance). The methodology highlights distinctive procedural rules and provides a versatile tool for studying how individuals structure choices across contexts.
On 13 May, from 15.00 to 17.30, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics & Management, in partnership with Systemic, is organising the conference “The role of climate finance to promote economic development in African countries”, followed by a networking cocktail. The session takes place in Auditorium 4 (ISEG, New Quelhas).
Free admission, subject to prior registration on this link.
The seminar will bring together representatives from leading international organisations, including the Green Climate Fund (GCF), the Global Green Growth Institute (GGGI), the Enabel, World Resources Instituteand Finance in Motion , together with the Resolve Fund, to discuss the strategic role of climate finance in the sustainable development of African countries, with a special focus on the PALOP countries.
In an international context in which, in some forums, attempts are being made to soften or omit the term “climate change” from public discourse, the scientific evidence remains unequivocal: the average global temperature is rising above forecasts, generating increasingly significant economic and social impacts. Financial losses, macroeconomic instability and the increased vulnerability of populations particularly affect developing countries.
The conference will highlight concrete experiences of green financial products, public policies for sustainable financing and technical assistance initiatives promoted by donors and international financial institutions. Among the main instruments under analysis will be concessionary financing, green bonds and mixed financing models, as essential mechanisms for transforming climate commitments into real investment with economic and social impact.
The meeting also aims to highlight the importance of national sustainable financing strategies aligned with the Paris Agreementas a fundamental condition for mobilising international funding and strengthening the economic resilience of the countries of the Global South.
Climate finance is thus a real lever for long-term economic development.
On Friday 8 May, a session of the ISEG Research Seminars will take place from 13.00 to 14.00. The guest speaker will be Tanya Tang.
The ISEG Research Seminars are held every week on Wednesdays, with the participation of professors from ISEG, as well as from other Portuguese and international educational institutions.
Title
Get My Money Back: The VAT Distortion and Related-Party Transactions in China
Abstract
Excess input VAT over output VAT cannot be refunded in China, creating a significant financial burden for businesses. Using a confidential National Tax Survey Database, we examine how firms manage their VAT payments to minimize cash lockup. We find that firms with substantial input VAT credit carryovers (IVCC) increase output credits through related-party transactions (RPTs). This effect is more pronounced among financially constrained firms, particularly when the related parties are subsidiaries of listed firms and when these related parties are capable of absorbing the additional output credits generated by increased purchases from listed firms. We further find that IVCC-induced RPTs negatively affect the gross margins of related parties, suggesting inflated transfer pricing. Following China's implementation of partial refund of IVCC in 2018, RPTs declined notably across the pilot industries. These findings provide empirical evidence of a mechanism for VAT non-compliance and distortion.